Toronto and much of the GTA are set to see a taste of milder fall weather this week before temperatures settle back to seasonal levels in time for the Thanksgiving long weekend.
After a cool start to October featuring crisp mornings and refreshing overnight lows, warmer air will briefly return through the middle of the week, bringing temperatures above the seasonal average before a cooler pattern takes hold heading into the holiday weekend.
The average high for this time of year in Toronto is 16°C, with an average overnight low of 7°C.
Cool start to the week
Monday will feature a mix of sun and cloud with the chance of a few lingering early-day showers. Gusty northwest winds between 30 and 50 km/h are expected to make conditions feel brisk at times despite a forecast high of 16°C, right around the seasonal norm.
Temperatures will fall sharply Monday night under mainly clear skies. Overnight lows are expected to range between 2°C and 5°C in some areas, raising the possibility of frost in portions of the GTA and surrounding regions, particularly outside Toronto’s urban core.
The clear skies and cooler temperatures continue a trend that has defined the first few days of October, offering residents classic autumn conditions.
Milder air arrives midweek
The weather pattern begins to shift on Tuesday as temperatures remain seasonable under a mix of sun and cloud. The daytime high is expected to reach 16°C before a milder overnight low of 11°C.
By Wednesday, a warmer air mass moves into southern Ontario, pushing temperatures well above the seasonal average. Toronto is expected to reach 20°C under a mix of sun and cloud, with a chance of showers. Overnight temperatures will remain relatively mild, with a low near 10°C.
The mild trend continues Thursday, when temperatures are forecast to climb to 19°C. Skies will again feature a mix of sun and cloud, along with the possibility of scattered showers. The overnight low is expected to sit around 9°C.
Thanksgiving weekend outlook
As residents prepare for Thanksgiving gatherings, fall fairs, cottage trips and outdoor activities, the early forecast points to generally favourable conditions across Toronto and the GTA.
Temperatures are expected to ease back toward seasonal levels by Friday, with a high of 17°C under partly cloudy skies and a chance of isolated showers.
Looking ahead to the long weekend, forecasters say Thanksgiving weekend is shaping up to be largely dry and seasonable, offering encouraging news for those planning outdoor celebrations or travel across southern Ontario.
While temperatures are expected to hover near normal early-October values, no widespread or significant rainfall is currently anticipated through most of the holiday weekend.
However, forecasters are monitoring the potential for wetter weather to arrive around midday on Thanksgiving Monday, which could bring increasing cloud cover and the chance of rain later in the day.
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