Canadian manufacturers battered by tariffs are optimistic the U.S. midterm election results could mark a turning point in the trade dispute between Canada and the United States.
Business leaders hope the Democratic sweep of Congress will help end trade tensions that have disrupted exports, raised prices and forced companies to overhaul supply chains.
But they warn that tariffs and uncertainty will continue to hurt Canadian businesses until a deal is reached.
“I’m certainly far more optimistic than I’ve ever been, because the signal is overwhelmingly clearer than I thought it would be,” Jean Simard, president and chief executive of the Aluminum Association of Canada, said Wednesday.
He said the election results could increase pressure on Washington to roll back tariffs and reach a trade deal sooner.
“I’m not sure it’s going to work, but it certainly adds momentum,” Simard said.
Canada produces roughly 3.3 million tonnes of aluminum annually, exporting about 90 per cent of its output, Simard said.
The vast majority of those exports historically went to the United States, but U.S. tariffs have prompted Canadian producers to redirect shipments to Europe, he said.
Canada’s steel industry is also facing U.S. tariffs of up to 50 per cent.
Blair Dickerson, president and chief executive of the Canadian Steel Producers Association, said a change in the political landscape in Washington doesn’t guarantee an immediate change in U.S. trade policy.
Still, she said the steel industry is encouraged by Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent comments that Canada-U.S. trade talks are progressing, and that the government remains focused on getting a good deal for all Canadians.
“Our priority remains clear,” Dickerson said. “We need a fair and predictable trading relationship so that the Canadian steel sector can compete and grow.”
The lack of predictability for the manufacturing sector remains a major concern for business owners as it makes it difficult to plan investments and manage costs.
“It keeps everybody on edge because the rules seem to be changing day to day,” said Marc Lecours, owner of Preferred CNC and Michmar Engineering in Windsor, Ont.
“It’s hard to make decisions moving forward when you don’t know what your profit margin could be, if any.”
He said tariffs have forced his companies, which manufacture components and design plastic injection molds for the automotive industry, to buy American steel and aluminum, driving up costs.
Lecours said his companies have experienced some layoffs, while trade uncertainty has made it difficult to plan new investments.
He said the election results could help mend Canada-U.S. relations.
“It’s an opportunity for both countries to take a look at how we can establish a better trade relationship and maybe repair some of the damage that’s been done,” Lecours said.
For other Canadian manufacturers, the trade war has already taken a toll on exports and competitiveness, adding urgency to calls for a deal.
Darrin Noble, president and chief operating officer of Surrey, B.C.-based Cloverdale Paint, said the election results offer hope for Canadian manufacturers struggling with U.S. tariffs.
“It is certainly a step in the right direction,” he said. “It signals a shift of U.S. voters and their level of satisfaction with their president.”
Noble said U.S. tariffs have made the company’s paint less competitive south of the border, threatening its export business.
He said stockpiled inventory in the United States initially helped cushion the impact, but the company is now beginning to feel the effects.
Noble said Ottawa granted the company tariff relief on steel paint cans, but other imported supplies continue to face duties that ultimately increase costs for Canadian consumers.
For example, Canadian retaliatory tariffs are driving up the cost of paint brushes, rollers and other supplies imported from the United States, he said.
Meanwhile, in a post on X, Canadian Federation of Independent Business president Dan Kelly said he hopes the election results will push Washington toward a lasting trade deal with Canada.
He said the results show the trade dispute has worsened affordability concerns in border states and the Midwest. Kelly added that 87 per cent of Canadian small businesses want an agreement reached as quickly as possible.
But Andreas Schotter, a professor of international business at Western University’s Ivey Business School, said Canadian companies should not expect a dramatic shift in U.S. trade policy.
“Even on the Democratic side, there’s a strong ‘America First’ notion,” he said. “For businesses, there’s no immediate change … I don’t see us all of a sudden going back to full CUSMA.”
The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement replaced NAFTA in 2020.
Meanwhile, Canada was largely exempt from the 10 per cent U.S. aluminum tariffs imposed during Trump’s first term, until his second administration raised them to 25 per cent in March 2025 and 50 per cent in June.
Simard said Canada’s three major primary aluminum producers — Rio Tinto, Alcoa and Aluminerie Alouette — initially continued fulfilling orders to American customers despite the tariffs before redirecting shipments to Europe.
He said Canadian producers have exported roughly 800,000 tonnes of aluminum to Europe since March 2025, compared with about 100,000 tonnes over a comparable period under normal market conditions.
Simard said the strategy has allowed the industry to maintain production without layoffs or production cuts.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 4, 2026.
Brett Bundale, The Canadian Press
