A new poll suggests Mayor Olivia Chow maintains a commanding lead in Toronto’s mayoral race, even as her personal approval ratings trend downward.
The latest survey from Liaison Strategies found Chow leading challenger Brad Bradford by nine percentage points among decided and leaning voters, with the incumbent receiving 48 per cent support compared to Bradford’s 39 per cent.
Former federal cabinet minister Chris Alexander sits a distant third at 10 per cent, while three per cent of respondents indicated support for another candidate.
The results represent a slight improvement for Chow compared to Liaison’s previous poll released on Sept. 22, when she held a seven-point advantage over Bradford. According to the polling firm, the movement was modest, but it suggests the mayor has managed to preserve and slightly expand her lead as the campaign unfolds.
“Chow has a little more breathing room on the ballot, but not a stronger approval rating,” said David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies.
Among all respondents, including undecided voters, Chow was supported by 41 per cent, Bradford by 33 per cent and Alexander by eight per cent, while 15 per cent remained undecided.
Mayor’s approval rating slips
While Chow’s ballot numbers improved slightly, the poll found her job approval ratings moving in the opposite direction.
Forty-nine per cent of respondents said they approve of Chow’s performance as mayor, down three points from the previous survey. Meanwhile, 45 per cent said they disapprove, up three points from the previous poll.
The shift narrows Chow’s net approval rating from 10 points to just four points.
Valentin said the findings show voters are distinguishing between their assessment of the mayor’s performance and their willingness to support alternative candidates.
“For Chow, the warning is that a lead can coexist with a much more divided assessment of her performance,” he said.
Despite the slippage in approval ratings, respondents expressed a more positive outlook on the overall direction of the city. Half of those surveyed said Toronto is moving in the right direction, compared to 43 per cent who said the city is on the wrong track.
Bradford gains recognition but trails in support
The poll suggests Bradford continues to make gains in name recognition.
Thirty-six per cent of respondents said they have a favourable impression of the Beaches-East York councillor, up from 33 per cent in the previous survey. However, his unfavourable rating also increased slightly to 38 per cent.
The number of respondents unfamiliar with Bradford fell from 19 per cent to 15 per cent, indicating more voters are becoming aware of his campaign.
Still, the increased visibility has yet to translate into meaningful movement on voting intention.
“For Bradford, the challenge is turning greater familiarity and a better favourable rating into additional votes,” Valentin said.
Sharp gender divide emerges
One of the most notable findings in the poll was a significant gender gap.
Among decided and leaning voters, Chow led women by a commanding 56 per cent to 32 per cent margin. Bradford, meanwhile, held an advantage among men, leading 47 per cent to 41 per cent.
The polling firm noted Chow’s lead among women is substantially larger than Bradford’s advantage among men, helping drive her overall citywide lead.
Downtown strength offsets Bradford’s Etobicoke advantage
Regionally, Chow posted strong numbers across much of the city.
The survey found Chow leading:
- Downtown: 58% to 29%
- North York: 49% to 40%
- Scarborough: 45% to 39%
Bradford’s strongest support was in Etobicoke, where he led Chow 50 per cent to 40 per cent.
Alexander remains distant third
While Alexander remains well behind the two frontrunners, the poll found awareness of his candidacy is growing.
His support among decided and leaning voters remained unchanged at 10 per cent. His favourable rating increased to 23 per cent while his unfavourable rating rose to 26 per cent.
Thirty-five per cent of respondents said they were unfamiliar with Alexander, while another 16 per cent were unsure of their opinion.
Liaison Strategies surveyed 1,000 Toronto residents between Sept. 26 and Sept. 27 using interactive voice response technology on both landline and cellular networks. The results were weighted using 2021 Census data and carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.