With just three days to go until Toronto votes, a new poll shows incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow has the lead over Brad Bradford by five percentage points, but the numbers indicate the race has tightened down the stretch.
The latest Canada Pulse Insights poll for CityNews found Chow has the support of 51 per cent of decided voters, and leaning voters. This is in comparison with 46 per cent for Bradford, while three per cent support another candidate.
However, Chow’s five-point lead marks a significant shift from September, when she held a 17-point lead over Bradford, who has gained 12 percentage points since then.
Former federal cabinet minister Chris Alexander was polling at nine points in September before withdrawing from the race. Chow’s support remained unchanged at 51 per cent.
“The final push by campaign organizers to get supporters to the polls will likely determine who wins the most ballots tallied on Monday night,” John Wright, CEO of Canada Pulse Insights, stated in a release.
How support breaks down across Toronto
According to the poll, Chow leads in Scarborough with 56 per cent support to Bradford’s 41 per cent.
In Toronto and East York, Chow has 55 per cent support, while Bradford trails at 43 per cent.
However, Bradford leads in North York with 51 per cent support to Chow’s 46 per cent. He’s also narrowly leading in Etobicoke York, with 49 per cent support over Chow’s 47 per cent.
Support differs by age and income
Chow’s strongest support is among younger and lower-income voters. Meanwhile, Bradford leads among voters aged 35 to 54 and those in the highest-income households.
Among decided voters aged 18 to 34, Chow has 61 per cent support, compared with 37 per cent for Bradford.
Bradford leads among those aged 35 to 54, with 53 per cent support to Chow’s 44 per cent. Among voters aged 55 and over, Chow has 50 per cent support, while Bradford has 48 per cent.
Chow also leads among decided voters in households earning less than $50,000, with 62 per cent support, and among those earning $50,000 to $99,999, with 56 per cent.
Bradford leads among decided voters in households earning $150,000 or more, with 59 per cent support compared with 39 per cent for Chow.
The poll also found Chow leads among decided voters with a high school education or less, 60 per cent to 36 per cent. University graduates are almost evenly divided, with 48 per cent supporting Chow and 49 per cent supporting Bradford.
Overall candidate preferences are similar among men and women, according to the survey.
Motivations behind voters’ choices
The poll found some voters are supporting their preferred candidate, while others are primarily motivated by preventing another candidate from winning.
Among respondents who named a candidate at the initial vote-choice question, 68 per cent said they were voting mainly to support their chosen candidate, while 32 per cent said they were voting mainly to prevent another candidate from winning.
For Bradford supporters, 62 per cent said they were voting mainly to support him, while 38 per cent said their main motivation was to prevent another candidate from winning.
Among Chow supporters, 74 per cent said they were voting mainly to support her, compared with 26 per cent who are primarily motivated by preventing another candidate from winning.
Women supporting Chow were about twice as likely as men supporting her to say their main motivation was to block another candidate, at 34 per cent compared with 16 per cent.
“Bradford’s challenge now is to turn his increased support into ballots,” Wright said. “While Chow’s is to ensure her supporters vote to maintain her advantage.”
Fewer voters remain undecided
The poll found eight per cent of respondents were initially undecided, down from 20 per cent in September.
At the initial vote-choice question, 46 per cent named Chow, 42 per cent named Bradford and two per cent named another candidate. One per cent said they would not vote for any of the candidates.
“With the vast majority of respondents now supporting or leaning toward a mayoral candidate, preferences are clearer-but support is not the same as turnout.”
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Election day is on Monday, Oct. 26.
The survey was conducted by Canada Pulse Insights among 737 adult residents of Toronto between Oct. 16 and 21, 2026, using an online panel managed by Sago. The data were weighted to 2021 Census benchmarks by age and gender. The reported margin of error for a probability-based sample of this size is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.